Global News

Global Security

   Drought, Fire and Grain in Russia
10 August 2010
Drought and wildfires damaging Russia's 2010 grain crop have given Moscow an opportunity to advance its foreign policy. [more]

   Escalating Violence From the Animal Liberation Front
29 July 2010
An arson case in Denver serves as a reminder that animal rights activists are becoming polarized and will likely become more aggressive toward people. [more]

  WikiLeaks and the Afghan War
27 July 2010
Summaries and excerpts of tens of thousands of documents leaked to a website known as WikiLeaks do not reveal a new reality with regards to the Afghan war. [more]

  A Closer Look at India's Naxalite Threat
8 July 2010
Recent declarations -- and actions -- by Maoist rebels in eastern India lead STRATFOR to re-examine one of the world’s longest running insurgencies. [more]

  The Caucasus Cauldron
7 July 2010
Logic and regional dynamics point to a strong U.S. relationship with Azerbaijan. [more]

  The Dismantling of a Suspected Russian Intelligence Operation
1 July 2010
The arrest of 11 suspected "undeclared" Russian agents in the United States suggests the ongoing use of classic Cold War intelligence tactics. [more]

  The 30-Year War in Afghanistan
29 June 2010
The U.S. obsession with Afghanistan, an on-again, off-again affair for 30 years, has entered a new phase in which the U.S. and allied militaries are directly carrying the war-fighting burden for the first time. Given the time frame grand strategy imposes, and given the capabilities of the Taliban, it is difficult to see how this strategy will work out, however. [more]

 Watching for Watchers
17 June 2010
Good situational awareness involves knowing what you're looking for. [more]

 The Kyrgyzstan Crisis and the Russian Dilemma
15 June 2010
Demographic reality means Russia has few good options with regard to the current crisis in Kyrgyzstan. [more]

 A Primer on Situational Awareness
10 June 2010
Being aware of one's surroundings and identifying potential threats is more of an attitude than a hard skill. [more]

 The Limits of Public Opinion: Arabs, Israelis and the Strategic Balance
8th June 2010
Recent Israeli actions with regard to the Gaza blockade have generated shifts in public opinion and diplomacy regionally and globally. The Israelis are calculating that these actions will not generate a long-term shift in the strategic posture of the Arab world. [more]

  Flotillas and the Wars of Public Opinion
31 May 2010
The Israelis have given the organizers of a flotilla carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza exactly what they hoped for: an incident that can be portrayed as an atrocity. This will have profound geopolitical implications for Israel. [more] 

  From Failed Bombings to Armed Jihadist Assaults
27 May 2010
Recent developments indicate a very high probability that jihadists will shift to conducting simple attacks with firearms in the United States. [more]

Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario
25 May 2010,
Though they might seem unrelated to the casual observer, the European economic crisis and the U.S. deployment of Patriot missiles to Poland in due course will intersect. [more]

  A Look at Kidnapping through the Lens of Protective Intelligence
20 May 2010,
A number of recent abductions around the world have prompted to revisit the phenomenon of kidnapping and how best to avoid it. [more]

Intelligence Reports in Brief

  Evidence of a U.S.-Russia Spy Swap
9 July 2010
Events on the afternoon of July 8 have confirmed that a spy swap is in the works between the United States and Russia. The 10 suspects accused by the United States of being unregistered agents of Russia pleaded guilty to the charge in a New York court July 8, and the presiding judge ordered that they all be immediately deported to Russia. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Justice confirmed that four individuals held in Russian custody for allegedly spying for Western intelligence agencies will be released. The exact identities of the four have not been confirmed but are believed to be Igor Sutyagin, a Russian disarmament researcher convicted of espionage in 2004; Sergei Skripal, a former colonel in Russia's Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU); Alexander Sypachev, a former colonel in Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR); and Alexander Zaporozhsky, another former SVR colonel. While the math of 10 Russian spies in exchange for four U.S. spies may seem fuzzy, the quality of intelligence provided may account for the difference. For example, Skripal is believed to have provided information on a number of Russian agents operating within MI6, the United Kingdom's foreign intelligence agency. Zaporozhsky is rumored to have exposed information leading to the capture of Robert Hanssen and Aldrich Ames, both extremely valuable double agents in the U.S. intelligence services. While the Russian agents recently arrested in the United States would provide serious long-term value, and possibly were more valuable than is publicly known, they did not have as much rank and access as the four expected to return from Russia. Forcing these 14 in from the cold may bring a close to the publicity on the issue, though counterintelligence investigations will continue, including one into the suspect operating under the identity of Christopher R. Mestos, whose whereabouts are still unknown after he made bail in Cyprus.

 Explosions At Pakistani Sufi Shrine
1 July 2010
Two explosions occurred in Lahore, Pakistan during the evening of July 1. The explosions targeted a sufi shrine, the Data Darbar, and appear to have been carried out by suicide operatives. The first occurred in the main courtyard of the shrine, and the second occurred at one of the gates to the compound. Some local media are reporting a third explosion, but those reports are unconfirmed. The death toll currently stands at 35, with dozens more reported injured. Thursday nights are popular times for people to visit such sufi shrines, so it is likely the area was crowded when the explosions occurred. The perpetrators apparently were able to slip past security guards in the area to carry out the attack. The sufi form the majority orientation among Pakistani Sunni Muslims, meaning this is an attack on the mainstream Pakistani population — unlike a previous attack that targeted the heterodox Ahmadi sect. Such an attack bears the hallmark of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, with followers from the more conservative deobandi and wahhabbist orientations, which are theologically opposed to sufiism. Physical damage to the shrine appears from television coverage to be minimal, indicating that the blasts were not that powerful. The relatively high death toll likely is the result of the crowded area in which the bombers detonated their devices rather than the strength of the devices themselves.

Brazil Begins Military Exercises On Paraguayan Border

7th June 2010
The Brazilian armed forces began the two-week-long Operation Southern Border I 2010 military exercise June 6, an annual exercise conducted in the cities of Foz do Iguacu, Santa Helena, Guaira and Francisco Beltrao near the border with Paraguay and Argentina. During the exercises, 700 Brazilian soldiers will be working closely with the federal police, customs, and Brazilian intelligence to help strengthen law enforcement at the border and patrol rural roads and near Itaipu Lake -- where the Itaipu hydroelectric dam is located. Brazilian security forces will also install vehicle barriers in several strategic locations covering the entire border with Paraguay. The border with Paraguay in particular has become an issue of concern for the Brazilian government in recent years, due to activities such as the drug trade, money laundering, and the trafficking of weapons. The region has also seen the rise of the Paraguayan guerrilla group Ejercito del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP) and the establishment of Sao Paulo's criminal organization the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC). Also, on the Paraguayan side of the border, there are a large number of wealthy Brazilian farmers who produce roughly 70 percent of Paraguay's grain exports and have been threatened by EPP. For that reason, Brasilia considering increasing Operation Southern Border exercises to twice a year. Brazil has long experienced criminal activity crossing into its territory from Colombia due to the presence of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia rebel group, and hopes to use these exercises to prevent a similar situation from developing along the Paraguayan border.

Suspects Attempting To Join Al Shabaab Arraigned In Court
7th June, 2010
Two suspects arrested at John F. Kennedy International Airport on June 6 were charged with conspiracy to kill, maim and murder persons outside of the United States in the U.S. district court in Newark, New Jersey, on June 7. Mohamed Mahmood Alessa, of Palestinian descent, and Carlos Eduardo Almonte, born in the Dominican Republic, both American citizens living in New Jersey, intended to fly to Egypt and then travel to Somalia to join al Shabaab. Al Shabaab is a Somali jihadist group linked to al Qaeda that is waging war against the country's government and has been attractive to foreign recruits in recent years. In October 2006, someone tipped off the FBI to Alessa and Almonte, and some time later they were surveilled by an NYPD undercover agent. In early 2007, the pair attempted to join a jihadist group in Iraq, but their plans were scuttled in Jordan. They continued to train in the United States by lifting weights, practicing with paintball guns and watching videos of Anwar al-Awlaki and al Shabaab. The suspects focused on fighting overseas and had no plans to conduct attacks in the United States, though reportedly Almonte was excited about the possibility of fighting U.S. troops he believed were coming to Somalia, and Alessa raised the possibility of returning to the United States for attacks if he was ordered to do so. The fact that the FBI and New York police were targeting these two and quickly arrested them when they tried to leave the country indicates that they are well aware of the potential threat posed by grassroots jihadists who might receive training overseas and then return home to conduct attacks. Alessa and Almonte also clearly exposed themselves through poor operational security, as someone, possibly in their community, told the FBI about threats the suspects made. European or other African targets is still limited, this case indicates the potential is there. It also highlights the continuing threat emanating from grassroots jihadists.

A Blow To Al Qaeda's Top Leadership
1st June 2010
Al Qaeda announced the death of one of its senior leaders, Sheikh Said al-Masri, more commonly known as Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, according a statement posted to an Islamist forum and picked up by jihadist monitoring group SITE on May 31. Separately, Reuters quoted an unnamed U.S. intelligence official saying that Washington strongly believes that al-Masri, whom al Qaeda has identified as its regional leader in Afghanistan and Pakistan, was killed in a recent airstrike in the Pakistani tribal belt. U.S. intelligence is identifying al-Masri as al Qaeda's third-highest ranking member after Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, and he is certainly among the top five leaders in the organization. While a number of deputies ranking directly below bin Laden and al-Zawahiri have been arrested since 9/11, al-Masri is the most senior figure to be killed since the death of al Qaeda military chief Mohammed Atef in Afghanistan in November 2001. He would also be the most senior al Qaeda leader killed by an American unmanned aerial vehicle in the Pakistani tribal belt to date. Al-Masri was in charge of financial matters and his death could be a huge blow to the fundraising and operational capabilities of al Qaeda's central leadership.